I hate to say "I told you so"

I hate to say "I told you so" but it's starting to pan out more like a very bad version of a very, very good George Orwell novel over in the US right now.

Remember when I suggested that the November elections might not happen in the US? Remember how I suggested that Bush might call in use of Presidential Directive NSPD 51 and decide to become King Dubya The First - for all eternity?

Well. Guess what?

You know, I really, really hate being right - especially when it's about nasty, greedy, horrible slimeball stuff of the sort going on right now in the US. I hate apathy, I hate ignorance - and I really, really hate people who sit on their butts waiting for someone else to stop the hurting happening. I hate the "somebody must do something!" catchcry that is all over the net right now - especially on US blogs.

Anyway. I'll continue.

In case you're unaware of the situation at present, McCain has just called off his campaign. Yep, sounds like a pretty big crisis to me.

So - next question is: how will elections take place on time without campaigning? My guess is they won't. That nasty little NSPD 51, which few noticed at the time, gives Dubya Dictatorial Powers in any sort of a crisis that he chooses to call - well, a 'crisis'.

In short, we have a cosy little Republican set-up where McCain calls off his campaign, leaving Obama in a sticky situation with not much option but to do likewise or look pretty bad. Bush delays elections. Whacko. Instant Fuhrer Bush.

Think it won't happen? Really? Really? You're more positive than me, I guess.

What can we do?

What we're seeing in the US is a massive departure from democracy to dictatorship under the guise of necessary economic overhaul. This is a power grab using shock tactics - be under no illusions it is about anything else. And althought it's just the US at the moment, it could have knock-on effects that could change the political shape of the world. I mean, if it works for them, what's to stop our leaders following suit with a few NSPD 51s of their own?

The thought is chilling.

But I digress...

What would happen if the $700 billion bailout didn't happen? No-one really knows. The US dollar would devalue significantly, but that will happen regardless. And, of course, the big question with the bailout is - who is going to buy the treasury bonds? Would you? I sure as hell wouldn't.

There is talk of the Japanese being keen to invest in discount US banks etc., at the moment, and this was spun on CNN last night as being a good sign, but the reality couldn't be further from the truth. The truth is, the Japs own 25% of US foreign debt, and if the US goes down in a shuddering heap, it could take Japan with it. Their keenness is nothing more than a desperation to prevent their own economy tumbling. (As an aside, the other big shareholder in US foreign debt is China, controlling about 20%. The remainder of the debt is smaller chunks).

If the bailout doesn't happen, the US economy will fall apart, but that will probably happen with the bailout anyway, just a bit later on. But at least if the bailout doesn't happen, no more debt is created to throw at bad debt. The cycle slows, rather than gathering momentum. That's my Economics understanding of it all - please correct me if I'm wrong.

As to the rest of us, the fall of the US is pretty much a foregone conclusion. I think what we will see eventually is a return to the gold standard and a complete mistrust of fiat currencies. We can blame Nixon (that bugger) of course, for closing the gold window and setting the huge chain of debt and inflation spiralling in the first place, but other factors have since played a role.

We're in for a depression, peoples. All of us. If you can, secure land that will grow food, clear your debts quickly, and build strong community. These three things have helped keep people afloat in hard times before, and they will work again. Do NOT assume that your retirement funds will be there when you need them, and do not put any more money into superannuation that you have to - these are times when you want as much control over your income as possible. Buy land, grow food, build community.

In the US, if you live in a rough area, get out of it. If you are a racial or cultural minority in your town, you might want to think twice about staying there. If you can move to another country with fewer weapons in private hands, you might want to consider doing so. And get yourself healthy - health care may be sketchy at best.

In the meanwhile, the bailout and depression haven't started - yet. Now is the time to prepare, prepare, prepare. Fight this bailout with everything you have, and organise dissent and community groups if at all possible. Don't look back in ten years thinking: "we could have done something, but we didn't." Now is the time to grow strong roots. Just don't be surprised if the elections don't happen on schedule. No-one will be more suprised than me if they do happen.